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A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments range over identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."

Request for Broader Debate

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."